The new energy industry includes three major parts: one is the upstream resource end, the second is the midstream manufacturing end, and the third is the downstream scene end or application end.

The upstream resource end has a certain cycle attribute or bulk commodity attribute, the midstream manufacturing end competes with technology, capacity and cost, and the downstream scene end emphasizes products, brands and channels.

In the process of popularization of the new energy industry from 1 to N, the scene side is infiltrating into different corners... We see a lot of scene-based product innovation or product-based scene expansion, and a hundred flowers are blooming.

"County-wide advancement" opens up the long tail effect of photovoltaics

In June last year, the National Energy Administration issued the "Notice on Submitting the Pilot Program of Roof Distributed Photovoltaic Development in the Whole County (City, District)", which initiated the policy of "advancing the whole county", and later identified 676 counties (cities) across the country. , District) as a pilot.

Among them, it is required that the photovoltaic installation ratio of the total roof area of ​​party and government organs in the pilot area should not be less than 50%, that of schools and hospitals should not be less than 40%, that of industrial and commercial distributed areas should not be less than 30%, and that of rural residents' roofs should not be less than 20%. .

The "Countywide Promotion" policy has systematically stimulated the in-depth development of distributed photovoltaics in my country, and has launched a highly imaginative scene space.

Household photovoltaics fly into the homes of ordinary people

In 2021, my country's household photovoltaic installed capacity will be 21.6GW, accounting for 39% of the total photovoltaic installed capacity in the same period, with a year-on-year increase of more than 116%. It is the main force of my country's newly installed photovoltaic capacity last year.

By the end of 2021, the cumulative installed capacity of household photovoltaics in my country has exceeded 41GW. If calculated at an average of 15KW per household, it has covered more than 2.7 million users.

Household photovoltaics mainly include a brand sales model and a cooperative development model. The former direct 2C (consumer investment), the latter 2B2C (energy central enterprises or financial institutions), especially the latter broadens the source of funds.

Today, driven by photovoltaic companies such as Chint, Trina, and Jolywood, the household photovoltaic business model has been continuously improved, and traditional home appliance companies such as Skyworth and TCL are also actively involved, and the penetration rate has continued to increase.

Household photovoltaics are becoming an important practice for ordinary people to participate in and experience the "dual carbon" goal.

A large-scale scenic base enters the Gobi desert

The large-scale scenery base is aimed at the desert, Gobi, desert and other scenes in my country. Under the personal promotion of the top management, the first phase of 100GW was built last year, and the second phase of 100GW was added later, mainly involving Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, Qinghai, Gansu, Xinjiang and other places.

Complementing it is the acceleration of UHV construction in my country and the continuous increase in the capacity of "West-to-East Power Transmission", which has increased the consumption of wind and solar power generation in deserts, Gobi, deserts and other regions.

Recently, the director of the National Development and Reform Commission said that the scale of the large-scale wind and solar base is 450GW, which is the largest in the history of our country.

Large-scale wind and solar bases are expected to become the ballast stone for my country's wind power and photovoltaic installations during the 14th Five-Year Plan period.

BIPV leads "Photovoltaic + Architecture"

Last year, policy documents such as the "Opinions on Completely Accurately Implementing the New Development Concept and Doing a Good Job in Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutralization" all made requirements for the promotion of "photovoltaic + building". Support policies for green buildings or distributed photovoltaics.

BIPV, as a basic tool for building energy conservation and efficiency and reducing carbon emissions, is expected to become the mainstream form of "photovoltaic + building" in the future.

At present, the stock area of ​​industrial, commercial and public buildings in the country is about 34.6 billion square meters, and the area of ​​new industrial, commercial and public buildings is about 2 billion square meters every year in the past five years. Under the policy requirements of mandatory installation of solar energy systems in new buildings, the new capacity is expected to reach 20GW per year, and there is more room for renovation of existing buildings.

These stocks and incremental building space provide a broad scene for the promotion of photovoltaic installations and BIPV.

"New Energy + Energy Storage" Mutual Achievements

Since last year, my country has introduced a series of policies in the field of new energy storage. At the same time, with the increase of large-scale wind and solar projects and the improvement of power stability requirements, the "new energy + energy storage" projects in various places have increased rapidly.

At present, Shanxi, Shandong, Ningxia, Qinghai, Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang and other places have successively introduced new energy storage solutions. Xinjiang has also launched the "Service and Promotion of the Operational Guidelines for the Construction of Large-scale Wind Power and Photovoltaic Bases in the Autonomous Region (Version 1.0)", "New Energy + Storage The bidding demand for "can" is more common, the allocation ratio is generally about 10%, and the allocation time is generally 2 hours.

The combination of "new energy + energy storage" scenarios improves the applicability of wind power and photovoltaics, which not only further stimulates the installed capacity of new energy, but also increases the demand for new energy storage, especially lithium battery energy storage, and promotes the lithium battery industry. development of.

Home energy storage is expected to be from outside to inside

The home energy storage business in Europe, America and Japan is relatively mature, and it often cooperates with household photovoltaics. Due to the influence of overseas power grids and power structure, the demand is large and the market is broad. At present, the main brands include Tesla (Powerwall), Sonnen, LG, Paineng and Wootai, etc.

Tesla Powerwall home energy storage has been in a state of short supply, and the supply of lithium batteries has always been insufficient. In recent years, it has been affected by chips. In 2020, Tesla installed a total of 100,000 sets of Powerwall home battery packs (13.5KWh each), and the sales price has also been increased from $6,500 to $7,000, and then to $7,500. Musk has said that there is an opportunity to achieve annualized sales of 1 million Powerwalls in 2022, but the supply chain will always be an issue.

In recent years, domestic lithium battery companies have stepped up the development of overseas home energy storage, especially since last year, the upstream materials of lithium batteries have risen sharply, the cost of lithium batteries has been high, and the price tolerance for the C-side is higher, which has stimulated domestic lithium batteries. The company's efforts to develop the overseas home energy storage market.

At the same time, with the development of domestic household photovoltaics, domestic household energy storage is also expected to break the ice, and portable energy storage with the function of "mobile power bank" actually has a certain market prototype for long-distance freight, tourism and live broadcast. and other fields.

Battery swap mode regains focus

Recently, Ningde Times has launched a power exchange brand and service, which has brought the power exchange model to the public's attention again.

The battery swap mode is not a new topic, and the battle with the charging mode has always been accompanied by the development of the new energy vehicle industry. Previously, there have been car systems such as NIO, third parties such as Aodong, and state grid companies. The national team, and the Ningde era represents the lithium battery system.

In fact, the battery swap mode is mainly aimed at application scenarios where lithium battery technology and cost are difficult to overcome in the short term, such as scenarios that require separation of vehicle power or flexibly configure the number of batteries to reduce purchase costs, scenarios where it is inconvenient for urban residents to charge their passenger cars, and Car-hailing, car-sharing, logistics vehicles, electric heavy-duty trucks, electric construction machinery and other production materials can be used in scenarios where the charging time is too short, and so on.

Through the battery swap mode, the demand for electric vehicles in this part of the application scenario can be stimulated, which is also the performance of the lithium battery industry entering a new stage of deep cultivation.

In addition, in addition to the continuous deepening of the electric vehicle field, the battery swap model has actually become popular in the field of electric two-wheelers in recent years, and many innovative companies have made a lot of scale with the promotion of capital.

Large-scale electric equipment enters the industrial and mining terminal

Compared with the high-profile development of electric vehicles, large-scale electric equipment has also moved forward in a low-key manner in recent years under the influence of the dual-carbon goal, and has developed rapidly.

Specifically, it includes electric heavy trucks, electric loaders, electric mining trucks, port AGVs, etc. These electric equipment are especially suitable for closed scenarios such as mines, docks, steel enterprises, and power companies.

The routes of these scenarios are fixed, charging is convenient, the carbon emission pressure is relatively high, and the frequency of use is high. Compared with fuel as a means of production, it can reflect better economy, so it is easier to promote.

Continuous exploration of light-storage-charge mode

The light-storage-charge model has always been an ideal model for energy Internet fans.

In April last year, an accident occurred at the energy storage power station supporting the “optical storage and charging” of Beijing Jimei Home Furnishing City, which caused this model to fall into controversy for a time.

However, with the promotion of distributed photovoltaics and the increase in the penetration rate of electric vehicles, the light-storage-charge mode has an objective demand. Currently, scenarios with smaller scale and controllable risks are still being actively explored, such as distributed photovoltaic + energy storage, Models such as energy storage + high-power charging are being commercialized.

Under the background of periodic upstream resources and fierce competition in midstream manufacturing, downstream scenarios are flourishing, applications are constantly enriched, and models are constantly innovating, including not only product and service innovation, but also development, investment, operation/operation and maintenance, and asset management. , asset trading, financial services and other innovations, capital is fueling the flames.

There are hundreds of flowers blooming at the scene end. For the development of the new energy industry from 1 to N, we are looking for more in-depth subdivisions, which can further drive or stimulate the development of the upstream. This is also the focus of the new energy industry in the new stage of development.