Investment opportunities in the new energy industry are moving from the manufacturing end to the scene end
Time:
2022-08-23
In the past year, investment opportunities in the new energy industry have shined brightly on the manufacturing side, and giants with a market value of trillions and several hundred billion have been born, mainly benefiting from the release of downstream terminal demand and the expected outbreak.
From photovoltaics, to lithium batteries, to energy storage, the hot new energy track has gone through a long and difficult process from 0 to 1. At the critical moment of crossing 1, it finally won unanimous approval and positive feedback from the capital market.
However, investment opportunities on the manufacturing side are being fully tapped. For example, the photovoltaic industry is discussing new technologies such as HJT and TOPcon, and the lithium battery industry is imagining new technologies such as sodium-ion batteries and solid-state batteries. These are all signs of excessive manufacturing opportunities. In other words, the opportunities on the manufacturing side, from the stock market to the equity market, have been a little weak, and we can already feel the exhaustion.
So, where are the future opportunities? When the industry completes the transition from 0 to 1 and enters from 1 to N, the marginal effect of technology weakens, and opportunities for scenario-based applications often begin to explode, whether it is computers or smartphones. The huge new energy industry is even more so.
01
What are some typical scenarios?
Scenarios are application areas.
The photovoltaic field is penetrating from centralized power stations to distributed power stations, especially household photovoltaics. The "county promotion" started this year is becoming a typical representative of the penetration of photovoltaic industry scenarios.
The wind power sector is expanding from onshore wind power to offshore wind power.
In the field of energy storage, it is even more ready for development. Overseas large-scale energy storage and home energy storage are gradually becoming mature, and the penetration rate is continuously increasing. Domestic power generation side energy storage and grid side energy storage have begun to be promoted, and the application of energy storage in different scenarios is gradually gaining momentum. Come.
In the field of charging and swapping, with the promotion of electric vehicles and mobile equipment such as electric bicycles, electric heavy trucks, electric mining trucks, and electric loaders, the demand has begun to spread, and the charging or battery swapping facilities for different scenarios are gradually improving. There are many business models.
In the context of carbon neutrality, there are other segments that are constantly being derived.
02
Scenario development, operations and asset management are increasingly important
In the development of the new energy industry from 1 to N, we are faced with endless opportunities, but the further the industry develops, the more refined the requirements.
Take the photovoltaic industry as an example. In the past, we mainly focused on centralized ground-based power plants, but this development model with land as the core resource was eventually restricted, and the land in the main power-consuming areas in our eastern region is more scarce. Therefore, the scene of distributed photovoltaics has expanded. It seems to be more and more important, and this year's "county promotion" actually started the long-tail development of photovoltaic industry scenarios.
However, it is a process of continuous exploration how to truly realize the implementation and maturity of the business model under the grand goal of "advancing the whole county", especially the operation and management of millions or even tens of millions of household photovoltaic scenarios is a huge subject.
Not only the development of the scene, but also the subsequent operation and management.
Whether household photovoltaics, offshore wind power, and high-frequency energy storage and charging and swapping facilities, follow-up operations and management are particularly important. This involves not only hardware management, but also information and big data management.
We have seen the birth of many energy Internet technologies or companies based on different new energy scenarios. These technologies or companies can greatly improve the development efficiency, operational efficiency and management efficiency of new energy, and enhance the economic benefits of long tail scenarios.
In the field of new energy, massive assets will be born, and the quality of assets will be determined by the quality of scene management.
As a means of production, new energy basically forms a new energy asset, whether it is a photovoltaic project, a wind power project, or an energy storage project. The development and operation of these projects directly determine the quality of the assets, as well as the corresponding financing costs and expected benefits.
In the future new energy asset trading market, the operation, management and data capabilities of the scene side will become an important basis for asset pricing.